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Probability of Rate Increases This Week: High
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April 13, 2005
LOS ANGELES - The economic calendar of informational releases last week was
thin. As such, it seems most attention was upon the Fed and its schedule of
statements, mainly regarding mortgage rates and the stability of the market.
Chairman Alan Greenspan was set to speak, and we all know when he talks, people
listen. Particularly homeowners considering a refinance or purchase anytime in
the near future.
After all was aid and done last week the mortgage rate average for the most part
remained stable.
Regarding this week: The economic calendar is top heavy with information
releases, thus placing the mortgage market on a pins-and-needles alert, so to
speak. In a 50./50 tug-of-war, the economic release of either good or adverse
information will nudge rates in either direction.
Tuesday will reveal the release of minutes from the March 22nd FOMC meeting. On
Wednesday the Retail Sales report will be released. Economic pressure on the
retail segment of the economy affects the mortgage market, believe it or not.
The last Fed meeting showed many concerns over short-term inflation that pushed
rates higher after they powers-that-be congregated. It is unknown if minutes
from this week will feed the same concerns and push mortgage rates higher again.
If you base things on the result produced last time it looks bleak. It is
expected that a strong Retail Sales report will be announced, and it is likely
that rate trends will go up a bit.
Article by Stockton Marquette
Economic Analyst and Mortgage Industry Advisor/Forecaster
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